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Rockets close out homestand vs. Warriors

Basketball Betting Lines

02/02/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The reeling Houston Rockets conclude a disastrous six-game homestand on Tuesday by facing one of the Western Conference's worst teams, the Golden State Warriors.

The Rockets, who fell to 1-4 on their residency with a heartbreaking 115-111 overtime loss to Phoenix on Sunday, should have an excellent chance to stop their slide. Houston has topped the Warriors eight straight times, including a pair of wins in Oakland this season.

Amare Stoudemire poured in a season-high 36 points on Sunday and the Suns hit 7-of-8 at the foul line in overtime, as Phoenix gutted out a tough road win over Houston.

Aaron Brooks had 24 points and six assists for the Rockets. Trevor Ariza contributed 21 points and hit a game-tying three near the end of regulation to force extra time.

Luis Scola and Carl Landry went for 17 and 16 points, respectively, in the loss.

With the Suns leading 100-97 in the waning seconds of regulation, Robin Lopez blocked Landry's layup attempt to force a jump ball, won by Houston, and the ball found its way to Ariza in the right corner for a three-pointer that tied the game at 100 with 11.3 seconds on the clock.

The Suns had one last chance for a game-winning shot, but Steve Nash's off- balance shot never came anywhere near the cylinder.

In the extra frame, Jared Dudley was fouled late and sank two clutch free throws with 5.3 ticks on the clock for a 113-110 Phoenix lead. The Suns smartly fouled Brooks before he could get a three-pointer off on the ensuing possession; he made the first and intentionally fired the second straight into the rim. It came right back to Brooks in the lane, but the referees called a lane violation for leaving too early, and Nash iced the game with two from the stripe at the other end.

"I surprised myself, the ref, everybody, so maybe something had to be wrong. It was a hard play, a hard call...that's how it goes," Brooks said of his thwarted follow-up attempt on the missed free throw.

The Warriors, meanwhile, dropped their fifth straight game in Oklahoma City on Sunday when Kevin Durant made 16-of-21 shots from the field on his way to a season-high 45 points while pulling down 11 rebounds, as the Thunder held off Golden State, 112-104.

Corey Maggette ended with 26 points and five boards for the Warriors, who have dropped nine of 11 overall. Monta Ellis chipped in 25 points. Stephen Curry tallied 14 points and five assists while CJ Watson added 13 points off the bench for Golden State, which fell to 4-20 away from Oakland this season.

"We need to work on closing games once we have control in the second half," Curry said.


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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.